San Francisco-What is the end of COVID-19 in the United States?It seems?
Perhaps there is no end, but he gave up and accepted a tolerable level of death.
“As a country, we are willing to tolerate some risk and still live a normal life,” said Dr. Aaron Carroll, a pediatrician and professor of pediatrics at Indiana University School of Medicine. “It’s becoming clear that we’re likely to have something to do with COVID. We have to learn to coexist with it.”
Carroll recently told the American Public Health Association panel that during the “good” flu season, nearly 100 Americans can die from the flu a day.
Americans can tolerate 100 deaths a day during the flu season, said Dr. Monica Gandhi, an infectious disease expert at the University of California, San Francisco.
“Therefore, that’s probably what we accept for COVID,” she said.
As of June 3, COVID-19 killed an average of 363 Americans a day, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. This has declined from more than 3,000 people a day during the peak of the January pandemic, and increasing vaccinations continue to reduce the number of deaths per day.
Experts point out that the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which causes COVID-19, can be almost completely controlled in the United States with near-universal vaccination, if Americans wish. That is why it was eradicated.
However, the decline of the COVID-19 pandemic will be uneven. See the difference between San Francisco and Nashville.
According to the local health department, no one in San Francisco County has died of COVID-19 for about a month. However, in Davidson County, Tennessee, where Nashville is located, eight people have died in the last two weeks, although the population is 185,000 less.
The difference is the vaccination rate. In San Francisco, 78% of people over the age of 12 experience at least one shot. 47% in Davidson County.
Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease expert at Vanderbilt University in Nashville, said, “We are sending back the vaccine assigned to us to the CDC.” It makes our hearts cry. “
Pandemic, epidemic, endemic
For epidemiologists, a pandemic is the spread of new diseases around the world. An epidemic is an unexpected increase in disease in a particular geographic area. The disease is endemic if it is always present but is confined to a particular group or region.
Today, COVID-19 is a global pandemic, endemic in the United States, and on the verge of endemic disease in highly vaccinated areas.
The pandemic will end around the world when the World Health Organization (WHO), which declared a global pandemic on March 11, 2020, declares that the pandemic is over. It probably won’t take months or years for a sufficient number of people to be vaccinated or survive the infection and be protected from COVID-19. The virus is still rampant in India, Uganda, Colombia and elsewhere, killing thousands every day.
The United States may be amnesty by July 4. At that time, President Joe Biden said that 70% of Americans would be vaccinated at least partially, and the infection rate would be low enough to declare the end of the epidemic in the United States, down to epidemic levels. I want.
At that point, there are effectively two Americas. One is vaccinated and the other is unvaccinated.
Colorado Governor Jared Polis said last month that “if fully vaccinated, the pandemic is largely over.”
For those who have not been vaccinated, this is not the case. If they get sick, “it’s very likely that they will be as severe as they are today or die of COVID-19,” Schaffner said.
In many areas, COVID-19 disappears into the background, but in others it will continue to be an important cause of outbreaks, said Dr. Robert Wacter of the University of California, San Francisco School of Medicine.
The wildcard is whether new variants emerge that are not well controlled by current vaccines and require boosters.
“Assuming that there are no truly vaccine-resistant mutants, we can expect a mild surge in winter, where vaccination rates are low,” Wacter said.
However, as is often the case with the SARS-CoV-2 virus, this is so new that it is uncertain. There is still not enough data to answer many pressing questions, such as how long the innate immunity from vaccines and previous infections lasts, said Ajay Setty, a professor of population health at the University of Wisconsin-Madison School of Medicine. Was.
Gandhi doesn’t think variants are a big deal. As vaccination rates increase, COVID-19 circulation decreases and is less likely to evolve.
However, as long as COVID-19 is rampant in other countries, it can continue to mutate, no matter how low the infection rate in the United States.
“COVID reminds us that we should care about fairness, but even if we don’t want to, we are so interconnected all over the world that You have to worry about it, “said Anne Rimoin, a professor of epidemiology at UCLA Fielding, at the School of Public Health.
If the vaccine remains effective, boosters may not be needed, and probably only once every two, three, or more years.
However, it can be a problem in itself. Because people forget how bad things are and have no incentive to protect them, Wachter says.
“It’s retreating in people’s memory and you can’t expect them to succeed when asked to take boosters,” he said.
Ultimately, only high levels of vaccination can really bring the whole country back to normal, said Dr. Walter Orenstein, a former director of the CDC vaccination program and deputy director of the Emory Vaccine Center. Stated.
“This virus does not eradicate itself,” he told public health officials.
When is the end of COVID-19 in the United States? When death is “accepted” by people at that time
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