Health

The model predicts more than 100,000 COVID deaths unless the United States changes the way

According to the most closely monitored forecast model in the United States, nearly 100,000 more COVID-19 deaths are expected in the United States between now and December 1. However, health experts say that if almost everyone wears a mask in public, tolls can be cut in half.

In other words, what the coronavirus stores this fall depends on human behavior.

Lauren Ancel Meyers, director of the COVID-19 Modeling Consortium at the University of Texas, said: “You can’t get Delta on track, but you can change your behavior overnight.”

That means doubling the mask again, limiting social gatherings, and staying home and vaccinated when sick. “They are under our control,” Myers said.

The United States is on the verge of a fourth wave of infection this summer, with highly contagious Delta variants causing another surge in cases, hospitalizations and deaths, overwhelming medical centers and burning out nurses. Months of progress on the virus have been lost. ..

The average daily death toll exceeds 1,100, and the clock is back in mid-March. One of the University of Washington’s influential models predicts that by early December, an additional 98,000 Americans will die, with a total of nearly 730,000 dead.


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According to expectations, the number of deaths will increase to about 1,400 per day by mid-September and then slowly decline.

But the model also says that many of those deaths can be avoided if Americans change their way of doing things.

“Wearing a mask can save 50,000 lives. That’s the importance of action,” said Ali Mokudad, a professor of health index science at the University of Washington, Seattle, who is involved in making predictions. Stated.

There are already signs that Americans take the threat more seriously.

In the last few weeks of vigilance against delta variants, sluggish demand for COVID-19 shots has reversed the course. The number of vaccinations given per day has increased by about 80% over the past month to an average of about 900,000.

The White House COVID-19 coordinator Jeff Seiens said on Tuesday in Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi that “more people than the last two months have made their first shot in the past month. Was acquired. “

Also, millions of students need to wear masks. More and more employers are demanding workers to be vaccinated after the federal government fully approved Pfizer’s shots earlier this week. Also, in cities such as New Orleans and New Orleans, people are required to get vaccinated if they want to eat at a restaurant.


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Associated Press-A new poll from the NORC Public Relations Center shows that half of American workers are in favor of vaccine requirements at work.

Early signs suggest that behavioral changes may have already flattened the curve in some places where the virus raged this summer.

The Associated Press analysis shows that Mississippi, Florida, Louisiana, and Arkansas have reduced incidences of new cases in some of the same states where the first shots are increasing. increase. In Florida, hospital plea and anger at school masks may have prompted some to take more precautions.

However, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, West Virginia, and Wyoming continue to be in trouble as new infections continue to grow steadily.

Mokudad said Americans were dissatisfied with “not doing what they needed to control the virus.”

“I don’t know,” he said. “We have a fire and no one wants to deploy a fire engine.”


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According to Elizabeth Stuart of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, the good news in spring: more vaccinations and fewer cases has made it difficult for people to get a glimpse of what was happening before and to resume. .. Precautions that they thought they had left behind.

“We don’t have to hunt down completely, but we can make some choices to reduce the risk,” she said.

Dr. Gabby Sauza, 30, of Seattle, who was vaccinated in the winter but tested positive for COVID-19 with other guests a few days after his Vermont wedding on August 14, prevented it. He said that even those who have been vaccinated should be vigilant. Participants had to submit a photo of the vaccination card.

“Looking back, I wish I had worn a mask,” she said.

Pediatric resident Sauza has missed a two-week hospital job and has been guilty of working with her colleagues. She suffered from body aches, fever, night sweats, malaise, coughing and chest pain for several days, but she acknowledges the vaccine’s achievements in keeping her infection under control.

“If we act, we can contain the virus. If we don’t act, the virus is waiting for us,” Mokudad said. “It will find the weak among us.”

The model predicts more than 100,000 COVID deaths unless the United States changes the way

Source link The model predicts more than 100,000 COVID deaths unless the United States changes the way

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