The betting market swings in favor of Gavin Newsom

Governor of California Gavin Newsom makes a gesture while speaking at a press conference at the San Bernardino Unified School District Office after visiting Juanita B. Jones Elementary School in San Bernardino on Friday, August 6, 2021. increase.

Watchara Phomicinda | Media News Group | Getty Images

The campaign to bring back California Governor Gavin Newsom lost so much momentum last month that Better says there’s an 85% or more chance that the effort will fail.

According to the political gambling website PredictIt, the Democratic Party’s chances of staying in power after the call on September 14 reached its highest point since early July last week.

On Thursday, a bet on a successful recall (meaning a bet that Newsome would be banished) took a dime on PredictIt, hitting a high of 34 cents in early August from 26 cents a week ago. As of Sunday, their prices had risen to just 14 cents.

The correct bet on PredictIt will be redeemed for $ 1, so if the recall is prioritized, a bet of 10 cents will earn 90 cents. According to PredictIt, the price of bets in favor of recalls has not fallen below 10 cents since May 20th. The low price for the campaign was 8 cents, a few days before May.

Newsom and the Democrats have sought to establish a strong position as Polling showed higher Republican enthusiasm for voting in recalls, despite California being certainly a blue state. The Governor of California is backed by celebrities and prominent politicians such as Senator Elizabeth Warren and Democrats. Democrats return early votes at a much higher rate than Republicans.

Former California Attorney General and former US Senator Kamala Harris will be campaigning with Newsom this week. President Joe Biden, who is working on less polling himself after a military withdrawal from Afghanistan and an increase in Covid-19 infections in many parts of the United States, said he would run a Newsom campaign.

The recent rosy outlook of the governor is reflected in polls. FiveThirtyEight’s voting average shows that Newsum is 10.4 percentage points higher than its pre-recall efforts (53% to 42.6%) from 5.6 points at the end of August. According to a poll by the California Institute of Public Policy last week, 58% of voters vote against the recall.

Recall efforts gained momentum during the Covid pandemic as critics of the state’s aggressive blockade, school closures, and increased crime expressed dissatisfaction. Some companies, wealthy tech executives and investors have also left California for lower tax states.

Newsom handed a gift to his opponent in November. As the pandemic continued to rage and the business closed, a photo of unmasked New Sam attending a party at the French Laundry, a fine dining restaurant in Napa Valley, emerged. By April of this year, the recall had 1.6 million signatures, exceeding the number needed to trigger an election.

Newsom’s supporters have grabbed cash and flooded recent California radio waves in an attempt to fend off the challenge. Opponents of the recall raised $ 68.9 million, according to CALmatters. This is six times the amount withdrawn by the side before the recall.

If more than half of the voters answered “yes” to the recall, the next governor will be the one with the most votes in the second half of the ballot out of the 46 candidates for replacement.

The betting market is not very confident in any of them.

Bets on Larry Elder, the host of the conservative radio talk show, fell from 25 cents on August 24 to 13 cents. Betting on YouTube star and real estate entrepreneur Kevin Pafras, who runs as a Democrat, has fallen from 13 cents to 4 cents. Cents in mid-August. None of the other candidates are over a penny.

Bets on Newsom to keep the gig dropped to 68 cents in early August. It now sells for 89 cents.

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The betting market swings in favor of Gavin Newsom

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