Republicans continued to take control of the Texas state government in 2020. By 2021, the Texas government will be able to tighten.

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Disappointed Texas Democrats saw the next decade flash in front of them as Lone Star opposed the vote and remained bright red on election night.

Within a few months, the Texas Legislature will launch a dramatic, gut-damaging Wankfest known as the constituency change. This is a 10-year redraw of the district line for almost equal creation by state officials elected by the Legislature, the State Capitol, and the State Board of Education. A district with a large population as the population increases after the 2020 census.

In addition, the State Capitol and Senate Republicans have maintained a majority of 20 years and are in a position to further establish power until the next constituency change in 2031. The majority of them will also be extended to the Legislative Constituency Change Committee. Congress cannot agree with them.

“After Tuesday’s results, the Republicans are in the driver’s seat on the constituency change,” said Mark Jones, a professor of political science at Rice University. “Anxiety about the narrowness of one or two seats [Democratic] A very partisan repartition may be considered in 2021 as the majority that may have changed the repartition dynamics did not materialize. “

GOP lawmakers who lead the process divide the Democratic territory, group into Republican districts that undermine more conservative voters, and manipulate the rows of Congressional districts to send more GOP representatives to Congress. Can create meaningful political benefits for future elections, such as.

Democratic Congressman Lloyd Doggett’s district was primarily based in liberal Austin until the 2003 parliamentary re-election. In this constituency, it was redrawn to extend to the Texas-Mexico border and was later called the “Fajita Strip” because of its strange gerrymandering shape. The move effectively grouped Austin Democrats outside of that time, allowing Republicans to strengthen their majority in parliament by creating new seats in and around Austin’s suburbs.

Republican trench costs have repeatedly deprived voters of their rights as GOP-led Texas Legislatures have drawn a map that weakens voting power, according to recent court findings.

Looking ahead to the battle more than a decade ahead, Democrats this election season saw constituency changes as the only and most urgent motive to turn the State Capitol over.

“It was a big lost opportunity. It’s a home-drawn map that reflects the true demographic trends that were happening,” said D-Austin’s Congressman Celia Israel earlier this month, hosted by the Lyndon B. Johnson School. Said in the panel. Public relations at the University of Texas at Austin.

The legislative assembly is in 150 Texas House districts, 31 Texas Senate districts, and perhaps 38 or 39 US House districts. Census estimates show that the state’s total population has increased by nearly 4 million since 2010, when the map was last redrawn, and this has increased from 36 seats.

Official data from the 2020 Census, which Republican Rep. Phil King of the Republican House of Representatives constituency change committee said must come before the map is drafted, will destabilize the entire process. Uncertainty about whether or not it will be in time. Those during a normal session. The summer pandemic delayed the process, and US census officials said they were working to take them to the state by the statutory deadline of April 1.

The new map is expected to be passed on to the Republican ruling majority for at least a few years. This could strengthen seats that are more competitive with population growth and, in some cases, add new seats.

Republicans have acknowledged the failure of the 2011 constituency change process, which backfired in Dallas County a few years later. In this process, lawmakers were unable to reinforce vulnerable GOP seats in favor of adding new seats. Republicans will lose all but two seats in the county in 2018.

The election was a “big awakening call” for Republicans to work hard to maintain a majority in 2020, said Fort Worth Republican and member of the House constituency change committee, Matt Klaus. Stated.

“If we didn’t take action, the situation would be very different in the next cycle,” he told the LBJ panel.

Political drama

In constituency changes, lawmakers are fighting not only for the rights and fair representation of voters, but also for their own political survival. For example, in 2011, GOP Rep. Mike “Tuffy” Hamilton’s East Texas district was paired with Republican Rep. James White, who defeated Hamilton in a split and bitter primary the following year.

“If you’re overgrown and you have to abandon part of the district, that’s good, but sometimes you have to abandon what you don’t want,” said Republican Parliamentarian Charlie Gueren. I am. value. “That’s the most personal thing you can do … all the time you spend in Congress.”

King, R-Weatherford, balances power between rural, urban and suburban areas, and is careful not to divide school districts and cities on other battlefields. Said to be ripe.

“It’s going to be high drama, high drama, and high drama,” said Geren, one of the few state representatives who has had problems entering a new session.

The pressure is rising for groups outside the Chamber of Commerce that encourage lawmakers to draw a tough political line. Geren experienced as a freshman when a conservative lobby group threatened a major enemy when he did not sign a pledge in favor of their favorite map.

This session is no exception.

Texas Republican Chairman Allen West has already urged his Republicans to refrain from compromising with the Democratic Party altogether.

“It’s important that what the progressive socialists left behind doesn’t affect or influence our constituency change process,” he said in an email.

Look to the court

Most people assume that all maps produced by the Texas Legislature go to court, and Democrats could blame racism in the manner depicted.

But this time, we will face a federal court system reorganized by President Donald Trump’s appointed person, and in some cases a conservative majority of 6 to 3 Supreme Court.

The 2021 constituency change cycle is the first in almost half a century to allow Texas legislatures to implement new legislative and congressional constituencies without first proving that they will not undermine voters’ right to vote. That is.

Texas is a recurring criminal in this regard. Every ten years after the federal voting rights law was passed, federal courts admitted that state legislators had deprived voters of their rights when creating maps.

Like some other states that have a history of discriminating against black and brown voters, Texas is a federal government on election changes, including regular adjustments to political boundaries to explain population growth. I needed to get approval.

But when the United States Supreme Court revoked federal voting rights law in 2013, it released Texas from its oversight.

In a recent constituency change effort, the safeguards have given Democrats the legal means to fight a new map that deprives voters who tend to lean to the left.

Democratic Texas Chairman Gilbert Inohosa said the Democratic rule of the White House could result in an Attorney General who is willing to put federal weight behind the fight against discrimination in constituency changes.

He also said that if the Democratic Party took control of the U.S. Senate (determined in the January elections in Georgia), it would help reinstate the voting rights law’s surveillance of Texas constituency change maps. He said he was expecting it. The delay in the census may buy some time to tilt these scales in favor of the Democratic Party, Hino said.

“A lot of things can happen between now and the time we enter the subdivision,” said Josa Hino. “Anything can happen, and we hope it happens.”

Demographic changes

Democrats will be forced to draw a map that more closely reflects the politics of the population, as state demographic changes bring in younger voters and more new residents from more Democratic states. Said he wanted.

“You can only do so much,” Israel said. “The numbers are real. We are a very diverse state. It is a beautiful and diverse state, as you know, you have to allocate, you have to be equal, You have to be fair. “

Incredible growth in areas like Tarrant County will seduce Republicans, according to Jones. Rather than protecting incumbents from future Democratic changes, Republicans may want to increase the Republican majority.

Hinosho is an example of how the previously credible red district is no longer targeted by Republicans, with a tendency to move from urban areas and out-of-state residents from the liberal east and west coasts to the suburbs. It points out that it will move.

In last week’s election, Democrats narrowed the gap with Republicans in five of Texas’s most competitive and populous suburban counties.

The state legislature district needs to attract about 950,000 people per district, and the state capitol district has nearly 200,000 people.

Population change means that about 77% of Texas lives between Interstate 35 and Interstate 45, King spent more than 20 years at the Chamber of Commerce. A veteran of the later process. Attempting to put together a cohesive and legitimate district outside that geographical triangle can pose some difficulties.

“How fair can you represent someone if you are 250 or 300 miles away from where you live? So, because of where our population is, it’s not really in other states. There are some geographical challenges, “he said.

But Mr King said his committee is committed to drawing a legal map that does not violate the requirements of the Voting Rights Act, no matter who disagrees with the parameters.

“The Voting Rights Act does not discriminate against groups based on language or race, so it applies to everyone. It applies to whites, blacks, Hispanics, and everyone,” he says. I did.

Permanent impact

The constituency change was a turning point in 2002 for the Republican Party’s first acquisition of Texas House in 130 years.

A conservative map passed in 2001 shed blood on Democrats in the next election, allowing Republicans to take control of the House of Representatives and place Republican Tom Cladick in the chair’s chair.

In the hands of a ruthless party, Cladick and the new conservative House of Representatives broke through Republican priorities, led Congress’s efforts to change the mid-seat constituency in 2003, and Democrats fled to Oklahoma and New Mexico to quorum. Breaked and blocked the new map. Republican Party won. For years, frustrated Democrats opposed Cladick’s authoritarian tactics, but could hardly stop the long-awaited Republican agenda.

Cladick was eventually replaced, but the next map, despite the democratic demographics, barely protected the Republican Party for another decade, Hino said.

“People are saying,’Why couldn’t you turn the house over this time?'” He said. “And my reaction to them is that we didn’t turn the house over because those districts did what they intended. They are very difficult for us to overcome. I was made a gerrymander by the way. “

Disclosure: The University of Texas at Austin’s LBJ School of Public Affairs is a financial supporter of the Texas Tribune, a non-profit, non-partisan news organization partially funded by donations from members, foundations, and corporate sponsors. .. Financial supporters play no role in tribune journalism.Find a complete list of them here..

Republicans continued to take control of the Texas state government in 2020. By 2021, the Texas government will be able to tighten.

Source link Republicans continued to take control of the Texas state government in 2020. By 2021, the Texas government will be able to tighten.

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