From Washington-Intelligence agencies studying the fate of Iraq’s Islamic State are preparing for Iraqi troops to bear the brunt of their work as US combat forces in Iraq “retreat deep into the background.” I am afraid that the terrorist group will not go anywhere.
This assessment is one of the key findings in a report released by the UN Sanctions Oversight Team, and despite the setbacks, IS (also known as ISIS or ISIL), Iraq and neighboring Syria.
“The group has evolved into a well-established rebellion, exploiting local security weaknesses to find safe havens and engage in ISIL response operations,” according to a report released Friday based on member state information. We targeted the troops. “
“The January and April 2021 attacks in Baghdad underscore the resilience of the group, despite intense counter-terrorism pressures from Iraqi authorities,” the report added. “It is likely that we will continue to attack civilians and other soft targets in the capital as much as possible to attract media attention and embarrass the Iraqi government.”
In addition to IS’s ability to launch an attack in Baghdad, UN member state intelligence agencies see terrorist groups reclaiming in the provinces of Diyala, Saraaldin, and Kirkuk, with one operative. Another one that made a series of attacks on the roads connecting the areas.
Intelligence agencies also expressed concern that IS operatives are taking advantage of poor communication and coordination between various Iraqi states.
“Such an attack #ISIL Fighters remain protected # Hamlin Continue to exploit security gaps and inefficient security coordination in the mountains and some areas of these provinces. ” @United Nations report
— Jeff Seldin (@jseldin) July 23, 2021
Some intelligence agencies further warned that the unstable political situation in Iraq and Syria would give IS more opportunities to consolidate its position.
But in contrast, some recent US assessments are more optimistic.
U.S. officials described Iraq’s IS as “decreased” and pointed out that it could command 8,000 fighters across Iraq and Syria, with 34,000 believed to have been in the heyday of terrorist groups. It is far from the above fighters.
Similarly, UN reports show that, in a sense, the IS was once the shell of its own, helping the Iraqi army undermine its leadership.
— Jeff Seldin (@jseldin) February 2, 2021
Intelligence agencies in UN member states are also reluctant to communicate directly with their supporters, the group’s self-proclaimed caliph Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi Alkrasi (also known as Amir Muhammad Said Abdal Rahman Almaura). “It has said. For UN evaluation.
At the same time, its financial resources have declined.
ISIS is expected to grow from hundreds of millions of dollars just a few years ago to $ 25 million and $ 50 million.
— Jeff Seldin (@jseldin) July 23, 2021
And so far, at least some officials remain uncertain that the US decision to end combat missions against IS in Iraq will make a big difference.
“They aren’t going to fight themselves, perhaps as they were a few years ago,” said Bayan Sami Abdul Rahman, the U.S. representative of the Kurdistan Regional Government, on a phone call Monday about the Iraqi U.S. military. Stated. “In fact, the support they provide is training, intelligence, and air strikes.”
However, they are also reluctant to dismiss the threat.
IS’s latest public US assessment in Iraq and Syria warns that terrorist groups “remain able to create a long-term rebellion,” and “the appeal of ISIS’s ideology is almost certain no matter what happens in the field.” Will follow. “
Some experts believe that on the ground in Iraq, in a limited way, for the foreseeable future, enthusiasm could soon begin to be exerted.
“There are several areas where it poses a serious threat, and ISIS fighters could potentially carry out attacks to assassinate or seize territory,” said Daveed Gartenstein, counter-terrorism analyst and CEO of Valens Global. -Ross told VOA.
“Sure, ISIS poses a major threat to some of the smaller towns closest to the areas where ISIS is strong,” he said.
Others have warned that whatever happens as a result of the United States ending its combat mission in Iraq, IS propaganda weapons will try to turn it into a victory.
“Islamic State will take the decision as evidence of the success of its own strategy that Americans are willing to commit resources to stay in the fight for a long time, especially in light of the decision to withdraw from Afghanistan. “Katherine Zimmerman, a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, told VOA.
Islamic State as Resilient in Iraq, Syria | Voice of America
Source link Islamic State as Resilient in Iraq, Syria | Voice of America