Washington – September wasn’t always a solid month for the hiring that many expected and expected.
Delta variants continue to disrupt the economy and employers struggle to find enough workers, so this month’s profits reached 194,000, less than half what economists expected. In August, the economy added modest 366,000 jobs. In summary, employment in the last two months has plummeted from 962,000 jobs added in June and 1.1 million jobs in July.
The employment market has withstood volatile fluctuations since COVID-19 hit the United States in March 2020. Since then, employers have added 17 million jobs-at least Delta, as huge infusions of federal aid have put money in people’s pockets and vaccine deployments have given them more confidence to return to stores, restaurants and bars. Before the variant erupts.
Last month, private sector added 317,000 jobs, down from 332,000 in August to an average of 553,000 from January to July. The leisure and hospitality sector, which includes hotels, restaurants and bars most damaged by the pandemic, has added 74,000 jobs. That number increased from 38,000 in August, but well below the January-July average of 296,000 per month.
All the employment news on Friday wasn’t bad. The Ministry of Labor has revised its July and August employment forecasts to a combined employment of 169,000. And the unemployment rate dropped from 5.2% in August to 4.8% in September.
Generally, 194,000 jobs are considered a decent monthly profit. However, Robert Dye, Chief Economist at Comerica Bank, said: Even more disappointing results in October would suggest that this is a labor market that is radically different from what we thought a few months ago. “
Here are five points from the September job report:
Delta bears tolls
From January to July of this year, employers added a ferocious average of over 640,000 jobs a month. Next, a delta hit. Cases of COVID-19 began to increase again, weakening the economic recovery. Employment growth slowed in August and September. However, the number of confirmed COVID cases has declined since mid-September, and the recovery in the employment market may be ready to regain momentum.
“This is a fairly deflationary report,” said Nick Bunker, director of economic research at the Indeed Hiring Lab. The number of cases of COVID-19 is declining, so it is interpreted that future months should be stronger, but in reality it is still pandemic. “
Behind the decline in the unemployment rate
The unemployment rate plummeted to 4.8%, the lowest level since March 2020. However, the reason for the decline is a mixture of good and bad.
Pros: Last month, the number of people who reported being hired increased by 526,000. And the number of people who reported unemployment decreased by 710,000.
Not so good: One of the reasons for the drop in unemployment is that 183,000 people stopped looking for jobs last month and are no longer unemployed. The percentage of Americans who have or are looking for a job, the so-called labor force participation rate, dropped to 61.6% in September. Prior to the pandemic, the participation rate was over 63%.
Economists do not know exactly why so many Americans chose to remain on the sidelines of the labor market, despite the surge in demand for workers. Some people may have a protracted fear of getting infected while processing publicly faced work.
Some people struggle to arrange childcare when school schedules are very uncertain. After spending time with their family during a pandemic, some are taking the time to choose early retirement or rethink their careers.
Recruitment is slowing as companies are unable to find the required number of workers.
Wells Fargo economists Sarah Haus and Michael Puriese said in their research notes that “securing a workforce is still the number one challenge in hiring.”
In July, employers posted a record 10.9 million jobs and struggled to fill them.
Enterprises have eased their labor shortages and unemployed are more enthusiastic about their jobs after the federal government ended last month’s enhanced aid to the unemployed, including an additional $ 300 a week in addition to state interests. I wanted to turn. However, the end of federal aid seems to have been less effective so far.
Similarly, supply shortages, primarily caused by the unexpected speed of economic recovery from last year’s coronavirus recession, have prevented businesses from doing business with sufficient force.
Overall employment in September was reduced due to the loss of 144,000 jobs in local public schools. However, this decline reflects how the Ministry of Labor adjusts the numbers to account for seasonal fluctuations.
Conclusion: Schools were actually hiring, suggesting less than the seasonal model, probably due to previous COVID-related closures or a lack of available teachers.
Oxford Economics economists Lydia Busser and Gregory Dako said in a study note, “As we were afraid, many schools have returned to face-to-face learning, but have been hired more than usual. The number of teachers was small. ” “This supports anecdotal evidence of schools struggling to find qualified teachers amid protracted viral fears and early retirement.”
Improve the outlook for all races
White, black and Hispanic workers all benefited from the employment market last month.
For whites, the employer’s rank increased by 326,000. The number of unemployed has decreased by 436,000. And the unemployment rate fell from 4.5% to 4.2%.
For African Americans, the number of people working has increased by 104,000. The number of unemployed has decreased by 187,000. And the unemployment rate fell from 8.8% to 7.9%. On a percentage basis, African-American employment increased twice as fast in September as whites (0.6% vs. 0.3%).
For Hispanics, the improvement was more modest. The number of employees has increased by 86,000. The number of unemployed has decreased by 2,000. And the unemployment rate dropped from 6.4% to 6.3%.
APEconomics writer Christopher Rugaber contributed to this report.
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Five Key Points from the September Job Report
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