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Current inflation is similar to other episodes in history, but with significant differences.

The customer’s grocery will be available for sale in stores in San Francisco, California, USA on Thursday, November 11, 2021.

David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Critical supply chains are cut off. Demand will skyrocket. Prices are skyrocketing and everyone is starting to get hooked on inflation and wondering how long it will last.

[1945年ですか?1916年?1974年?

もちろん、答えは上記のすべてであり、そこに2021を投入することもできます。

第二次世界大戦以来、30年で最強の現在のランを含め、7回の価格高騰のエピソードを乗り越えてきたため、インフレは米国にとって目新しいものではありません。 パンデミックショックから抜け出すことは、世界最大の経済にとって困難な運動でしたそしてインフレは痛みを伴う副作用でした。

しかし、歴史的な類似点を見つけようとすること、つまり、おそらく解決策を見つけることは簡単ではありません。 事実上すべてのサイクルには、他のサイクルと少なくともいくつかの類似点がありますが、それぞれが独自の方法で一意です。

最近との最も一般的な比較は、1970年代から80年代初頭のスタグフレーション(低成長、高価格)環境です。 そして、おそらくそれには少なくともある程度の妥当性はありますが、現実はもっと複雑です。

Bleakley AdvisoryGroupの最高投資責任者であるPeterBoockvarは、次のように述べています。 「問題は、それがいつ上昇したままで、いつ後退し、どのくらいの速度で落ち着くのかということです。」

ほとんどの米国の政策立案者は、1970年代のつながりを拒否しています。

連邦準備制度理事会のジェローム・パウエル議長、財務長官のジャネット・イエレン、バイデン政権の当局者などの指導者は、インフレを一時的であり、ほぼ完全にパンデミックに特有の要因によって引き起こされていると考えています。 これらの要因が沈静化すると、インフレ率は低下し、FRBが健全で成長している経済を象徴すると見なす2%レベルに到達します。

一部のホワイトハウスのエコノミストは、現在の伸びはスタグフレーションの時代ではなく、第二次世界大戦直後の気候に似ていると主張しています。 1940年代後半。


Inflation episodes in the U.S.

Consumer price index, rate of change from a year ago

Note: The period of rising inflation is shaded.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI), White House (inflation period until 2008).Data is

Seasonally adjusted, as of October 2009.

Inflation episodes in the U.S.

Rate of change from the consumer price index

one year ago

Economic expansion in the late 1960s

Note: The period of rising inflation is shaded.

Source: Labor Statistics Bureau (CPI), White

House (inflation period until 2008).

The data is seasonally adjusted and is current as of October 2009.

Inflation episodes in the U.S.

Consumer price index, rate of change from a year ago

Note: The period of rising inflation is shaded.

Source: Labor Statistics Bureau (CPI), White House (from inflation period)

’08). The data is seasonally adjusted and is current as of October 2009.

“The same is true of today’s consumer durables shortage. The national crisis had to disrupt normal production processes,” a team of Whitehouse economists wrote in a July 2021 paper. “But instead of divert resources to support war effort, manufacturing capacity was temporarily closed or reduced to avoid COVID transmission.”

When there are signs that supply chain disruptions have been resolved and at least major port congestion has eased, “ Inflation can fall sharply as the supply chain goes completely online and demand stagnation leveled off. There is sex, “the newspaper said.

Temporary, permanent, or “intermediate”

The idea that inflation is “temporary” -a worn-out term that is transitioning from the epidemic-is central to the claims from fiscal and financial authorities that overly simple policies are not due to the surge in inflation.

But simple policies have been at the heart of many cycles to date, and attempts to blame all of the pandemics have angered consumers and investors, who are at their lowest levels of confidence in 10 years. It didn’t go particularly well on Wall Street. How long inflation will last.

In fact, whether inflation is temporary is probably the biggest debate in the investment world these days.

Customers will send gas to their car at a gas station on November 22, 2021 in Miami, Florida.

Joe Ladle | Getty Images

“The discussions are always in black and white, and the reality is probably somewhere in between,” said Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Loithold Group.

In fact, Paulsen has been studying inflation for the past century or so, and while there may be many times when problems may occur, it has been proven to continue after World War I and as mentioned above. It turns out that there are only two in the 1970s and early 80s. ..

He is in a camp that also goes through this practice, primarily because it is fueled primarily by supply chain issues that will eventually be resolved.

Still, he is wary of what is wrong.

“It’s not as temporary as we first thought, but I still think it’s the best chance,” Paulsen said. “But I think that’s definitely the biggest risk, if not, it’s not just for stocks, but for the economy if it’s really out of control.”

The risk of inflation arises because this cycle differs from the others in one important respect. Policy makers have never thrown anything close to this amount into the economy.

What if sometime next year we declare not only a pseudo-win against Covid, but also inflation?

Jim Paulsen

Chief Investment Strategist, Reuthold Group

“Policy abuse”

President Joe Biden and President Janet Yellen argued that not all financial and monetary stimulus measures were the root cause of inflation, but the argument that nearly $ 10 trillion between Congress and the Fed has not boosted prices. , Difficult to swallow for some people.

Paulsen believes the current situation will decline in 2022, but is worried about what he calls “globally synchronized policy abuse.” In essence, it means that policymakers remain urgent about economic conditions that appear to be far past the crisis stage and can boil if authorities continue to heat up.

Still, he also sees falling oil-centric commodity prices, lower transportation costs, and less port blockages, at least historically, as signs of temporary inflation.

“What if someday next year we not only declared a pseudo-win against Covid, but also about inflation?” Paulsen said.

The advent of new Covid variants in South Africa complicates both questions. Even Powell, Bush, etc., where inflation is in temporary camps, say that pandemics are the root cause of price pressure, so if a new variant turns into a bigger threat, it will be longer and higher. Means there is up to.

On top of that, most mainstream economists stick to the belief that 2022 will say a significant drop in inflation.

How to end everything

Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics, says there are close similarities between the current plight and the runaway inflation of the 1970s, and he feels that way.

For one thing, he said, the wave of inflationary shocks was demand-driven and a product of supply problems because of the oil embargo at the time. Unions that were able to negotiate an increase in contract living costs also boosted the wage and price spiral.

The perceptual federal government has also contributed to the problem by overly neglecting inflation and resisting rate hikes that could slow the economy.

Currently, federal policymakers are lagging behind in tightening, but have vowed to act if inflation expectations are not hindered. But the worry is that the Fed is already too late.

“The wage spiral we suffered at the time was due to the explosion of COLA and inflation expectations. They rose and the Fed didn’t recognize it and didn’t react to it,” Zandy said. “Assuming that the future wave of the virus is not so destructive, yes, we think there are signs of mitigation.”

Current inflation is similar to other episodes in history, but with significant differences.

Source link Current inflation is similar to other episodes in history, but with significant differences.

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