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China “quietly” recedes from the trade war with Australia, claimed by key researchers

Key experts have predicted that China will “quietly” retreat from Australia’s economic coercion in the face of rising pressure from the United States and other allies this year.

Dr. Jeffrey Wilson, Research Director at the Perth USA Asia Center, said last year that Beijing gradually blocked most of Australia’s major exports, including coal, seafood, wine, barley, wood and meat, after Scott Morrison sought an investigation. He said 2021 was “not similar.” To the origin of the coronavirus.

Dr. Wilson told the Daily Mail Australia that the change of government in the United States will shift the dynamics of conflict in Australia’s favor, as Joe Biden is likely to pressure him to retreat to China rather than Donald Trump.

Joe Biden (in 2012 was drawn with China of Xi Jinping Jintao) it is, and is likely to put pressure to retreat to China than Donald Trump, Jeffrey Wilson Dr. told the Daily Mail Australia Ta

“The United States will be on par with our ally Australia,” Biden’s new National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, who advocated a competitive approach to China, tweeted on December 3.

“The next Biden administration is actually interested in containing China in a rule-based system, so when we are beaten, it’s a problem for him. This is something the United States should care about. That didn’t even happen to Trump, “he said.

Biden has vowed to end Trump’s approach to America’s first foreign policy by restoring America’s global leadership, calling for human rights abuses, and strengthening traditional alliances.

“The United States will be on par with our ally Australia,” Biden’s new National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, who advocated a competitive approach to China, tweeted on December 3.

The tweet did not mention China, but did clearly mention tensions between Canberra and Beijing.

“This shows how seriously the United States is taking this issue,” Dr. Wilson said.

“It’s okay for China to attack Australia when Trump doesn’t care. But when the United States says,” If you’re going to choose my brother, you choose me, “it completes China’s story. Change to.

“When the United States is involved, it’s a big escalation they don’t want. There is an argument that this will actually stop it.

Another factor that could set China back is fears of backlash from 1.4 billion citizens (photographed in Wuhan in December) suffering from trade restrictions.

Another factor that could set China back is fears of backlash from 1.4 billion citizens (photographed in Wuhan in December) suffering from trade restrictions.

In January 2019, President Trump signed a “Phase 1” trade agreement with China to end the 18-month trade war between the world’s two largest economies.

Dr. Wilson said China wants to avoid further economic tensions with the United States and will feel threatened by the potential sanctions and tariffs imposed by Biden.

“China can’t beat the United States in a trade war and they don’t want to fight their peers,” he said.

“They got out of a trade war with Trump. It was terrible for their economy and cost them billions of dollars. The last thing they want is trade with the Byden administration. It’s a war.

“If they think clearly, this will really bring them back, and my doubt is that this is what they will do over the next year.

Chinese officials probably said, “Oh, how can we get out of this?”

Dr. Jeffrey Wilson on Australia’s Economic Forces in Beijing

“2021 will not look like 2020, when another trade sanction will be imposed every few weeks,” he added.

“I would be very surprised if they continued to do so after the Biden administration took the wheel.”

Canberra officials also hope that the Biden White House will be better for Australia than Trump’s second phase.

“I think the line of debate is right,” a national security source told the Daily Mail Australia.

But it’s not just the pressure from the United States that pushes China back.

In December, Australia introduced China to the World Trade Organization, surpassing the 80% tariff on barley imposed in May.

Beijing argues that tariffs are required because Australia sells barley below production costs in a practice called dumping that Canberra denies.

Bringing China to the WTO effectively involves 164 member states in conflict. The ruling can take years, but the move puts Australia’s allies into action.

“The importance of the WTO case is not that barley tariffs will be eliminated, not that tariffs will be eliminated when you win, but that it will be a global issue, and in Australia alone. No, “Dr. Wilson said.

“It removes the dispute from the bilateral situation that China is about 13 times larger than Australia and moves it to a multilateral forum.

“It is shifting from a political issue in Australia and China, where China doesn’t care how much Australia currently hates them, to a multilateral issue involving the United States, the EU, Japan and other countries. “

Dr. Jeffrey Wilson, Perth USA Asia Center

Dr. Jeffrey Wilson, Perth USA Asia Center

Dr. Wilson said trading with China at the Global Forum “significantly raises the political cost” to Beijing of using economic coercion.

“It will dramatically change China’s political calculations. They will be very pleased to participate in a trade dispute with Australia, but probably not the United States or Japan.”

A third factor that could set China back is the fear of backlash from 1.4 billion citizens suffering from trade restrictions.

Aside from the rejection of Australian wine and lobster, the Australian coal ban has endured millions of people outages.

Cities in Hunan, Jiangxi, and Zhejiang turned off streetlights and allocated electricity because power plants specially tuned to process Australian coal were unable to generate enough energy.

“The trade war is also affecting Chinese people as cities that haven’t been distributed for 25 years are facing power outages,” said Dr. Wilson.

“If the government really stopped and thought about this before doing that, they might have checked what would happen if Australia banned coal.

“I didn’t really care that someone went and did it at a very high level and checked the results.”

Dr. Wilson said power outages are a “serious problem” for the Chinese Communist Party It draws its legitimacy and general support from providing economic development.

“If they can’t keep the lights on during the winter, it’s a pretty terrible prosecution of their ability as a regime,” he said.

“Because of all the horrors of the Trump administration during Covid, the United States did not suffer from rolling blackouts.

“China is the world’s superpower and cannot sustain major cities with electricity.”

As a result of the Chinese Communist Party's blockade of Australian coal, cities in Hunan, Jiangxi, and Zhejiang fell into darkness in December.

As a result of the Chinese Communist Party’s blockade of Australian coal, cities in Hunan, Jiangxi, and Zhejiang fell into darkness in December.

So what if the relationship between Australia and China is destined to cool this year?

In the past, when China used trade sanctions to enforce other nations, relations were normalized by soothing Beijing.

This happened in Norway in 2016, ending the six-year dispute with a one-sided joint statement that Norway “fully respects China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

In November, the Chinese embassy in Canberra released a list of 14 complaints, including free press in Australia and politicians criticizing Beijing, but Scott Morrison argued that there was nothing negotiable.

In addition, Dr. Wilson said China knows that its 14 demands are unrealistic and do not want Australia to do anything different.

He believes Beijing “sets an example” and opposes China to other countries in the region, such as Indonesia, the Philippines and Malaysia, including human rights abuses and illegal territorial claims in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. I warn you not to. South China Sea.

“They have no request to bash us so that someone else can see it,” he said. “It’s a mafia hit to scare others.”

Therefore, a more likely scenario than Australia justifies may be simply deciding to lift the ban that China has imposed on Australia’s exports.

Due to Beijing's blockade of Australian coal, 12 cities have distributed electricity usage. Hunan Province in southern China was flooded with reports that Changsha workers' social media platform Weibo (pictured) climbed dozens of steps after the elevator was closed.

Due to Beijing’s blockade of Australian coal, 12 cities have distributed electricity usage. Hunan Province in southern China was flooded with reports that Changsha workers’ social media platform Weibo (pictured) climbed dozens of steps after the elevator was closed.

“I think they’ll probably find a way to get rid of it quietly. They may start attacking other countries, or there will be some misdirection in large-scale promotional efforts,” Dr. Wilson said. Said.

“Chinese officials probably said,’Oh, how can I get out of this? The Americans are back and the Australians are standing firmly. When they reach the WTO, they’ll lose their pants,” we said. We’ve gone too far here, how can we get out of this without looking weak? “

However, Dr. Wilson said there may still be some twists and turns in the relationship between Canberra and Beijing. In particular, it is almost impossible to predict what the Chinese government will do next.

He said that members of the Politburo are lifelong Communist Party members who are “working on becoming an increasingly nationalist indoctrination and totalitarian system.”

“Common sense and rationality are not necessarily the principles by which their decisions are made,” he warned.

14 complaints from China to Australia

1. “Continuous wonton interference in the situation in China’s Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Hong Kong and Taiwan”

2. “Participate in the US anti-China campaign and disseminate false information”

3. “A thinly obscured claim to China regarding unproven cyberattacks”

4. “Media unfriendly or hostile reports on China”

5. Fund the “Anti-China Think Tank to Disseminate False Reports”

6. “Foreign Interferometry”

7. “Decision on foreign investment”

8. “Ban Huawei Technology and ZTE from 5G Networks”

9. “Politicalization and stigma of regular exchange and cooperation between China and Australia”

10. Issue a statement “to the United Nations in the South China Sea”

11. “Exorbitant criticism of the Chinese ruling party by parliamentarians and racist attacks on Chinese or Asians”

12. “Early search and reckless seizure of Chinese journalists’ homes and property”

13. “Call for an independent investigation into Covid-19”

14. “Legislation to scrutinize agreements with foreign governments”

China “quietly” recedes from the trade war with Australia, claimed by key researchers

Source link China “quietly” recedes from the trade war with Australia, claimed by key researchers

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